The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has cautioned the Federal government not to mistake the rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for real economic growth.
The Director-General of MAN, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, who addressed journalists on Tuesday in Lagos, noted that the rebased GDP might signify that Nigeria’s economy may be statistically larger, but it does not translate to more productivity.
In its “Rebasing of GDP,” report released on July 21 by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) rebased its GDP from N80 trillion to N372 trillion.
GDP rebasing is the process of updating the base year used to calculate the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to reflect changes in the structure and composition of an economy.
This involves using a more recent base year to accurately reflect modern economic activities, consumption patterns, and sectoral contributions.
In the report, NBS noted: “The rebased estimates with the new base year of 2019 indicate that the nominal GDP for Nigeria is much larger than previously estimated.
“In 2019, the rebased nominal GDP at market prices stood at N205.09 trillion, N213.64 trillion in 2020, N243.30 trillion in 2021, N274.23 trillion in 2022, N314.02 trillion in 2023, and N372.82 trillion in 2024.”
However, despite the rebasing, which increased Nigeria’s GDP from N80 trillion to N372 trillion, Nigeria remained the fourth biggest economy in Africa behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria.
However, Ajayi-Kadir warned that the rebased GDP — mainly driven by improved data from agriculture, services, and the informal sector — should not be mistaken for real progress.
He urged the federal government to prioritize manufacturing and industrialization to reflect the real economic situation and gains of the country’s rebased GDP.
“The rebasing confirms that Nigeria’s economy may be statistically larger, but it is not more productive, nor more industrialized,” he said.
“While the rebasing exercise reveals a more diversified economy, it also exposes the underperformance of industry, particularly manufacturing, a sector which should be the backbone of Nigeria’s economic transformation.”
Ajayi-Kadir said despite the upward revision, Nigeria’s real GDP growth remains weak, averaging only 1.95 percent between 2020 and 2024.
He added that the rebased structure shows industry’s share of the GDP declined from 27.65 percent in the 2010 base year to 21.08 percent under the new 2019 base year.
“This marks a structural shift away from production toward low-productivity service activities,” he added.
He said the government must treat the rebased GDP not as a sign of success, but as “a strong call for structural industrial reforms”.
“Nigeria must re-industrialize to achieve inclusive growth, build export capacity, and reduce dependence on primary commodities and informal activities,” he said.
The Director-General asked policymakers to prioritise manufacturing in financing, infrastructure, and policy design.
“Without a strong industrial base, GDP expansion may just become a hollow statistic,” he said.
“The upward revision of Nigeria’s GDP to $243 billion could lift investors’ confidence and improve headline macroeconomic ratios such as the debt-to-GDP ratio.
“However, confidence in the economy is anchored not just on size, but on structural resilience, depth of industrial capacity and productivity growth.”
He called for sustained implementation of industry-centric initiatives, such as the Industrial Revolution Working Group, improved infrastructure, and greater access to long-term finance to revitalize the sector.
“This is the only way for the GDP growth to translate into poverty reduction, job creation, and macroeconomic stability,” the MAN boss stated.
