The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly upgraded its 2026 growth projection for Nigeria to 4.2 per cent, but warned that rising food and energy prices are deepening hardship for millions of citizens.
The upgrade, 0.1 percentage point above its earlier estimate, was contained in the Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook, titled “Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices.” It also projected growth of 4.3 per cent for 2027, unchanged from its previous forecast.
The report was unveiled in Bangkok, Thailand, by the IMF’s Director of Research, Silvana Tenreyro.
The Fund credited Nigeria’s brighter outlook to improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms of trade. However, it cautioned that costlier essential goods would likely worsen poverty and food insecurity.
The projection comes as the Tinubu administration continues the economic reforms it began about three years ago. While the policies have drawn praise for their boldness, they have also weakened purchasing power and pushed more Nigerians into poverty.
On the global front, the IMF expects the world economy to expand by 3.1 per cent in 2026, which is 0.4 percentage point lower than last year, before picking up to 3.4 per cent in 2027.
Ms Tenreyro said the global economy had so far shown resilience, but that this strength was fading, with risks tilted to the downside.
According to the Fund, war-linked spikes in energy and commodity prices are fuelling inflation and dragging on activity. It added that AI-driven investment is boosting trade, demand and growth, but also adding to price pressures.
Global headline inflation is projected to climb to 4.7 per cent in 2026 before easing to 4.1 per cent in 2027.
Responding to a question from Nigerian journalist Nancy Nnaji, the IMF’s Research Department Division Chief, Deniz Igan, urged policymakers to cushion the effects of rising living costs without compromising long-term stability.
Ms Igan said Nigeria, as an energy exporter, had maintained growth, but that pressure on household incomes remained severe, with food security further threatened by the risk of El Niño.
She recommended temporary, targeted cash transfers and income support for the most vulnerable households, adding that such assistance should be funded sustainably through better spending efficiency and stronger revenue collection.
The advice comes amid growing pressure on the government from opposition presidential aspirants Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, who have called for the restoration of some petrol subsidies to ease hardship.
Last week, the World Bank raised its 2026 growth forecast for Nigeria to 4.3 per cent, up from 4.0 per cent in 2025, and projected 4.4 per cent growth in both 2027 and 2028. The bank pointed to improved macroeconomic stability, rising investor confidence and a gradual rebound in private investment.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that real GDP grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, up from 4.23 per cent in the same period of 2025.
Meanwhile, the federal government has announced a 30-day discount window on petrol sold by NNPC Limited, with public transporters nationwide given priority.
Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele rejected claims that the move amounted to a partial return of subsidy, insisting it was financed solely from the retailer’s margins and not from the federal budget or the Federation Account.
Critics, however, dispute this explanation, alleging that the government is reintroducing subsidy in response to opposition pressure.
