The Nigerian currency showed weakness during midweek trading at the unofficial market, despite improved fundamentals in the country’s official market.
The naira faced increased pressure in the black market, trading at N1,620 to $1, compared to N1,605 to $1 the previous day.
Market activity indicates that the Nigerian spot value appears stronger than traders had projected in the forward market, despite improvements in market liquidity and a weaker U.S. dollar index globally.
Participants in the foreign exchange market remain optimistic despite this minor decline in exchange rates. There was an inflow of $847 million through the NAFEM window, up from $795 million the previous week.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) accounted for 22.87% of the total inflow, followed by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) at 32.26%, non-bank corporates at 22.0%, exporters at 17.97%, and other sources at 40.9%.
Initial market tensions were driven by increased demand pressure on the naira during this volatile period, though this was eased by ongoing crude oil sales to nearby refineries in naira.
The closing price for the one-month forward rate was N1,670.42/$1. The three-month forward contract closed at N1,752.18/$1. The six-month forward contract settled at N1,870.78/$1, while the one-year forward rate closed at N2,087.66/$1.
Ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China, along with concerns about a potential global recession, have negatively impacted the crude oil market, which typically has a positive correlation with the naira’s outlook.
Crude oil prices currently sit approximately $10 below the Federal Government’s benchmark. Although the greenback recovered slightly from a seven-month low against the yen, it appears poised to record its fourth consecutive weekly decline as investors pull back from the U.S. in response to tariffs imposed under the Trump administration.
The U.S. has repeatedly threatened, implemented, and then delayed significant tariffs, undermining the dollar and eroding investor confidence in U.S. economic growth and stability. The euro and yen have both gained roughly 5% against the dollar in just over two weeks. The euro recently depreciated slightly to $1.1373.
The U.S. Dollar Index presents a bearish outlook, hovering around the 99.5 support level as of Thursday.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to show a sell signal with the formation of new red histogram bars, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 27, firmly in oversold territory.
The overall technical structure suggests that the risk remains tilted to the downside amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and softening yield differentials—unless the index sees a strong recovery above the 100.5 level.
