The drop in crude oil prices and the resumption of the naira-for-crude arrangement for local refiners may push the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) further down to about N800 per litre in the coming weeks or months, oil marketers and industry analysts said on Wednesday.
This comes as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reduced its ex-depot price for PMS to N835 per litre, its second downward adjustment in less than seven days.
The industry players, however, pointed out that the N800 per litre price could be achieved if crude drops further to $50 per barrel and marketers depend less on foreign exchange to buy products. Brent, the global benchmark for crude, was about $65 per barrel on Wednesday.
Also on Wednesday, the Dangote refinery again slashed its refined product prices to make them cheaper, cutting its ex-depot rate for petrol to N835 per litre.
The new price represents a N30 reduction from N865 per litre implemented six days ago, marking a 3.5 per cent decrease, and a N45 reduction from the N880 per litre sold by the facility last Wednesday.
This price cut marks Dangote’s third downward price adjustment in six weeks. A pro forma invoice sighted by our correspondent, and checks on petroleumprice.ng confirmed the development.
Confirming this, a statement signed by the Group’s Chief Branding and Communications Officer, Anthony Chiejina, said the refinery reduced its gantry price to reaffirm its commitment to providing high-quality petrol at affordable rates, benefiting consumers across the nation.
It stated that the new price is inclusive of charges by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.
The document detailing the revised price structure shows that PMS at the gantry will now sell for N835 per litre, inclusive of NMDPRA statutory levies, while coastal sales remain on hold. The diesel gantry price is set at $608 plus a $70 surcharge, payable either in naira at N1,650/$ or in USD.
Coastal sales are also on hold. Jet fuel will be sold at $664.75 with a $42 gantry surcharge and a $22 coastal surcharge. Prices for cooking gas at both gantry and coastal points are currently on hold.
The statement added that its partners will sell the products between N890 and N920. These partners include MRS, AP (Ardova), Heyden, Optima Energy, Hyde and Tecno Oil.
The statement reads, “Dangote Petroleum Refinery is pleased to announce a reduction in the gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit, commonly known as petrol, from N865 to N835, effective from Wednesday, 16th April 2025. This marks the second price reduction within a week.”
“Key partners, including MRS, AP (Ardova), Heyden, Optima Energy, Hyde and Tecno Oil, will offer petrol at N890 per litre, down from N920 in Lagos. In the South-West, the price will be N900 per litre, reduced from N930.
“In the North-West and North-Central, the price will be N910 per litre, lowered from N940. In the South-East, South-South, and North-East, the price will be N920 per litre, down from N950.”
Continuing, Chiejina anticipated that the latest reduction in PMS prices would generate a positive ripple effect throughout various sectors of the economy, providing much-needed relief to consumers and contributing to broader economic growth.
He added, “Dangote Petroleum Refinery has consistently worked to reduce the prices of petrol and other refined petroleum products, ensuring the continued benefit of Nigerian consumers. For example, in February, the refinery reduced prices twice by N125. In addition, products such as diesel and Liquefied Petroleum Gas have also experienced significant price reductions due to the refinery’s sustained efforts.
“We anticipate that this latest reduction in PMS prices will generate a positive ripple effect throughout various sectors of the economy, providing much-needed relief to consumers and contributing to broader economic growth, particularly during the Easter season.
“Dangote Petroleum Refinery remains steadfast in its commitment to ensuring a steady supply of premium-quality petroleum products, with sufficient reserves to meet domestic demand, along with a surplus for export. This strategy is designed to support the stability of the domestic market while also contributing to the growth of Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves.
“Furthermore, Dangote Petroleum Refinery calls on industry stakeholders, including marketers and distributors, to continue sourcing their products from the refinery, ensuring that the benefits of these price reductions are fully realised across the country.”
This development comes as marketers secured regulatory approval to import 117,000 metric tonnes—equivalent to 156.897 million litres—of petrol within eight days, from 8 to 16 April 2025, to boost fuel supply nationwide.
These figures were revealed in separate documents obtained by our correspondent from the Nigerian Ports Authority and the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria.
Dealers said the N853 per litre spot import parity into tanks, which includes expenses such as shipping, import duties, and exchange rates, marks a notable N3 reduction from N856.75 per litre last Monday and N852.02 on Tuesday.
The document showed that on-the-spot sales at the NPSC-NOJ terminal dropped to N853.12 per litre, while the 30-day average cost also declined to N844.84 per litre.
Within the period, marketers brought in six vessels conveying 117,000 metric tonnes through Tin Can Port in Lagos and Calabar Port in Cross River State.
Importantly, the continued price drop coincides with the restart and full implementation of the Naira-for-Crude agreement with local refiners after an earlier suspension.
The Ministry of Finance disclosed this in a statement published last week on its official X handle, titled: “Update on the Crude and Refined Product Sales in Naira Initiative.”
The statement followed a meeting on Tuesday between the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, and representatives from Dangote Refinery—a major beneficiary of the agreement — to review progress and address ongoing implementation issues.
The committee stated that the policy is not a temporary measure but a long-term strategy to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on foreign exchange for petroleum.
It added that the initiative is a key policy directive designed to support sustainable local refining and strengthen energy security.
Despite these price adjustments, oil marketers have yet to pass on the savings to consumers, with retail pump prices remaining largely unchanged across much of the country.
Commenting, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, said the development was a direct implication of the revamped naira for crude deal.
Ukadike, speaking in a telephone interview, said, “Yes, the reduced price is a direct implication of the naira-for-crude deal. Global crude price is also a key factor. And I can tell you that if this continues, and prices continue to dwindle in the international market, the impact shall be felt domestically in the prices of refined products.
“When crude price reaches $50 per barrel, then it is possible to reach between N650 to N700 per litre petrol price.”
He, however, lamented the new challenge of losses to be absorbed by business owners.
“It is affecting marketers, but based on the naira-for-crude, the effect must be reflected in the pump price. The issue of exchange has been discounted because the government has started supplying Dangote crude. It won’t be fair for him to remain at the former price.
“Because of the new decision of the New Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company, there must be a reflective impact on the price of petroleum products to show that the government has implemented as discussed,” Ukadike stated.
An oil and gas expert, Olatide Jeremiah, said the pump price of petrol would have reached N700 if the local arrangement deal hadn’t been suspended.
He said, “The crude oil decline and renewal of naira-for-crude policy is a double-edged advantage for Nigerians, as pump price may hit N700/litre soon.
“Today’s decline from N865/litre to N830/litre just triggered a price war between Dangote and private Depot owners. As I speak, oil importers are jittering as this price decline will force them to compete, thus pushing them into losses since their landing cost is about 860/litre, and most of them still have stocks in their tank farms.
“For both blocs, it’s all about who has the largest share and dominates the petroleum market, but for Nigerians, they should expect and enjoy a continuous reduction of fuel pump prices.
“If not for the suspension of naira-crude policy that gave private depot owners the autonomy to jack up prices, petrol pump price would have dropped to around N700/litre.”
However, President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, Dr Billy Gillis-Harry, offered a different perspective on the development, noting that the arbitrary change of price is causing significant instability in the sector.
