President Bola Tinubu’s administration has secured more than $50 billion in foreign investment commitments since May 2023, but only about $2.06 billion has actually entered Nigeria as foreign direct investment, according to a report by Nairametrics.
This highlights the difficult gap between investment promises and capital deployed in the economy.
The commitments, contained in 87 Memoranda of Understanding secured through the President’s foreign trips and diplomatic engagements, cover oil and gas, manufacturing, agriculture, logistics, technology, infrastructure and other sectors.
While the Federal Government has presented the pledges as evidence of rising international investor confidence in Nigeria, the relatively small volume of realised FDI raises questions about the extent to which the commitments have translated into operating projects, new capacity and jobs.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that Nigeria attracted about $47.6 billion in foreign capital between May 2023 and the first quarter of 2026.
However, FDI accounted for only about $2.06 billion, or roughly 4.3 per cent, of the total capital imported during the period.
The figures indicate that the bulk of foreign capital entering the country has continued to come from portfolio and other forms of investment rather than direct investment in productive assets.
Major investment commitments
Some of the largest investment commitments announced by the administration include ExxonMobil’s proposed $10 billion expansion of deepwater oil production, APPL’s €9.2 billion Hydrogen Polis project in Akwa Ibom State and Indorama’s $8 billion expansion of its petrochemical and fertiliser operations in Rivers State.
Other major pledges include Jindal Steel’s $3 billion commitment to iron ore processing and steel production, Shell’s $3 billion oil and gas investment programme and Arise Integrated Industrial Platforms’ $3.5 billion infrastructure and industrial development commitment.
The Federal Government has argued that such commitments should not be regarded as immediate cash inflows because major projects typically require extensive due diligence, financing arrangements, regulatory approvals and final investment decisions before funds are deployed.
Nigeria’s FDI figures nevertheless show that translating investor interest into actual capital remains a major challenge.
FDI stood at $86.03 million in the second quarter of 2023, before falling to $59.77 million in the third quarter and rising to $183.97 million in the fourth quarter.
In the first quarter of 2024, FDI was $119.18 million. It subsequently declined sharply to $29.83 million in the second quarter, before increasing to $103.82 million in the third quarter and $421.88 million in the fourth quarter.
The fourth-quarter 2024 figure was the highest quarterly FDI inflow recorded during the period under review.
FDI inflows stood at $126.29 million in the first quarter of 2025, $142.67 million in the second quarter, $296.25 million in the third quarter and $357.8 million in the fourth quarter.
The first quarter of 2026 recorded a further $135.08 million.
FDI remains a small share of capital inflows
The trend was also evident in 2025, when Nigeria recorded total capital importation of $23.22 billion, up significantly from $12.32 billion in 2024.
Despite the increase, FDI contributed only $923.01 million, representing 3.97 per cent of total capital imported during the year.
In 2024, FDI stood at $674.71 million, accounting for 5.48 per cent of total capital inflows.
The figures suggest that although foreign capital inflows have improved substantially, the recovery has been driven largely by more liquid portfolio investments rather than long-term capital associated with factories, industrial expansion and permanent job creation.
Investors taking a long-term view
Economist and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said the difference between announced commitments and actual inflows was not necessarily unusual because FDI decisions typically take time.
According to him, direct investors conduct extensive assessments of economic conditions, country risks and alternative investment opportunities before committing funds.
He noted that unlike portfolio investments, FDI is relatively illiquid and involves a longer investment horizon, meaning investors are unlikely to make decisions immediately after an investment summit or high-level government meeting.
Yusuf also pointed to Nigeria’s political and economic uncertainties as factors that could influence the timing of investment decisions.
He said some investors could adopt a wait-and-see approach as the country moves towards another political transition, assessing how developments, including the elections, could affect the investment climate.
From pledges to financial close
Economist and University of Abuja lecturer, Dr Olu Olajemgbesi, said the $50 billion in commitments nevertheless demonstrated that Nigeria had attracted significant international investor interest.
He stressed, however, that investor interest should not be confused with realised investment.
“The real question, therefore, is how much of those pledges have moved beyond announcements,” Olajemgbesi said, pointing to the need to establish how many projects had reached financial close or final investment decision and how much capital had actually been transferred into Nigeria.
He also said the more important measures were the number of projects that had become operational, jobs created and additional productive capacity established.
Olajemgbesi said the President’s foreign trips should not automatically be considered unsuccessful because the $50 billion in commitments had not immediately translated into an equivalent amount of FDI.
However, he argued that the wide gap highlighted the challenge of converting investment diplomacy into deployable capital.
For Nigeria, the distinction is increasingly important as the government seeks foreign capital to support infrastructure, industrialisation, energy development and economic expansion.
The Newsmatrics reports that investment pledges can signal confidence and create a pipeline of potential projects, but actual FDI provides a stronger indication of whether investors are putting money to work in the Nigerian economy.
The challenge for the administration, therefore, is moving the commitments from diplomatic announcements and MOUs to financial close, project execution and measurable economic output.
